Fanatics Trader: I’ve Never Seen an NFL Season This Wild
In a season where excellent parity has made it difficult to make predictions, there are four fantastic NFL Divisional Round games scheduled for this weekend, beginning today. Ethan Useloff, a sports trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, claims that. And the Buffalo Bills' matchup with the Broncos in Denver today at 4:30 p.m. EST, the first divisional game out of the chute, is as realistic as it gets.
“I think this season in particular has been one that we’ve seen great parity within the NFL from week to week,” he said. “We have one of the Super Bowl favorites in the New England Patriots who lost Week 1 to the Las Vegas Raiders (20-13), who have the No. 1 pick (in this spring’s NFL draft), which is an incredible showing of this parity. It’s an illustration of the way the reverse draft order in the NFL works to essentially aid the teams who are poor, in becoming better. We don’t see as many teams spin in the pit of mediocrity as we do in other leagues.”
Superparity
That has just made the league more competitive. You can cite modifications to the regulations, such as those pertaining to kickoff or overtime. A portion of it can be attributed to the athletes' rising caliber during the previous ten years. There are no longer any 5,000-yard passers (Matthew Stafford of the Rams led the NFL this season with 4,707 yards), which is another effect of how clubs play defense.
This season has been "super gripping," according to Useloff, and it has also made it more difficult for him to do his duties as a trader effectively.
"You might have a team that’s a favorite and they lose by double digits or something along those lines,” he said. “But overall, it makes the in-game betting experience and even the hype around it before the game starts, even more enthralling for the fan, and for me. That makes it so much more fun to do our job, because all the customers are so excited to bet. We have more promotions than ever.”
Fair Play Guidelines
When a player sustains an injury during the first half, Fanatics' Fair Play policy will reimburse single-player prop bets and protect parlays by voiding the impacted legs and recalculating odds. Over a million wagers were protected this past season, including single-player props and parlay legs that were nullified to keep bets alive. Fanatics also reimbursed $17 million to clients through the refund program.
In the second quarter of San Francisco's victory over the Philadelphia Eagles during last week's Wild Card Weekend, TE George Kittle of the 49ers suffered a torn right Achilles.
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills, 4:30 p.m. EST today
The The injuries to the Bills' wide receivers—Gabe Davis, Joshua Palmer, and Tyrell Shavers—are a major storyline. Then, WR Brandin Cooks, who has seven receptions for 159 yards, will receive additional attention.
It's huge news for the Bills because DT Ed Oliver was activated from injured reserve. Oliver recorded three sacks in his three games this season. Oliver's left biceps tear in October has kept him out of action. Curtis Samuel, a wide receiver, was also activated for the game today.
Despite his injuries, Josh Allen, the quarterback for the Bills, is undoubtedly the NFL's MVP. Despite being in the concussion tent during last weekend's Wild Card victory in Jacksonville and struggling with foot and finger concerns, ESPN claims that he participated in full practice on Wednesday and Thursday.
“Allen’s ability is so much more unique than other players,” said Useloff. However, he added the Bills’ situation is the largest point differential you will see if their backup QB has to enter the game for any reason.
“That will be a touchdown swing if Mitch Trubisky has to enter the game,” he said. “Allen is that team, and if they were to lose him you can almost call that game over.
Imposing Broncos’ Defence
“That game, to me, in general, is one where you have the team that is really its quarterback, in a lot of ways, with the Buffalo Bills,” said Useloff. “They go as far as he’s able to go against the home team with the less experienced quarterback (Bo Nix), and for all intents and purposes, the better defence.
“So to me, it’s a classic matchup of how important the quarterback is. With the Bills also, the rush attack has been super dominant all season (RB James Cook led the NFL in rushing with 1,621 yards). But the Bills’ wide receivers, they’re absolutely decimated by injuries. They’re going to struggle with their vertical pass threat, and it’s going to only up the ante in terms of the importance of that run game, the importance of Josh Allen being a physical runner with that really imposing defence in Denver.”
Useloff stated that even though the Bills are up against a strong defense, he anticipates an improved running game. With 91 yards allowed on the ground per game, Denver ranks second.
“If the Bills are going to win this game, it’s going to come down to their ability to control time of possession, execute in the red zone, convert on third down,” he said.
Current Betting Lines for Today’s Games
At DraftKings: ML Bills +100, Broncos -120; Spread Bills +1.5 (-112), Broncos -1.5 (-108); Over 45.5 (-112), U 45.5 (-108).
At FanDuel: ML Bills +100, Broncos -118; Spread Bills +1.5 (-118), Broncos -1.5 (-104); Over 46.5 (-102), U 46.5 (-120).
And at BetMGM: ML Bills +100, Broncos -120; Spread Bills +1.5 (-105), Broncos -1.5 (-105); Over 46 (-110), U 46 (-110).
Today at 8:00 p.m. EST, the San Francisco 49ers will play the Seattle Seahawks
Sam Darnold, the quarterback for the Seahawks, had an oblique injury, as we reported a few days ago. Despite telling reporters earlier this week that he was playing, he is still labeled as questionable. In their most recent meeting in Week 18, the Seahawks defeated the 49ers 13-3 while limiting their total yards to just 173.
At home, the Seahawks are huge betting favorites. The AFC has the closest spreads, as stated by Useloff. He prefers the 49ers and the Bills as underdogs.
“I know they’re decimated by injuries with Kittle, and Ricky Pearsall didn’t play last week (listed as questionable for today),” he said. “But I think seven points in the playoffs is really hard to cover when you have a Kyle Shanahan coached team, and Robert Saleh has been, in my opinion, maybe the best defensive coordinator in the game this year.
“It’s hard to imagine the Niners losing by a ton of points in that game. I know it’s in Seattle, and it’s going to be a night game, and they have all these injuries. But seven points is a lot in the playoffs, especially with the fight that team has and the championship pedigree.”
Current Betting Lines
At DraftKings: ML 49ers +275, Seahawks -345; Spread 49ers +7 (-105), Seahawks -7 (-115); Over 45.5 (-102), U 45.5 (-118).
At FanDuel: ML 49ers +275, Seahawks -340; Spread 49ers +7 (-105), Seahawks -7 (-115); Over 44.5 (-120), U 44.5 (-102).
And at BetMGM: ML 49ers +265, Seahawks -333; Spread 49ers +7 (-105), Seahawks -7 (-115); Over 45 (-102), U 45 (-110).
Prop betting that is unpredictable
Broad receiving core of the Bills. They will need to rely more on tight ends like Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid coming into a game with so many injured wide receivers. They will also need to be more inventive in how they integrate their skill position players, notably their running backs in the pass game. Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator for the Bills, is receiving a lot of attention.
Cooks Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-115) and Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir Over 5.5 Receptions Made (-145) are two of the most popular props (tickets) at BetMGM this morning. Shakir 30+ Total Receiving Yards is one of the most popular non-TD player props at theScore Bet based on total bets.